The Board
Published Monday. Judged Friday.
Ten predictions a week, each one a survivor of the convergence gate — posted before the week begins, graded after it ends, kept forever.
The rules
A board you can hold us to.
Every row on the board is written to be judged. A statement names its outcome, its source of truth and its deadline at publication — and after Monday 9:00 AM Central it cannot be edited, reworded or quietly withdrawn. Friday at 4:00 PM Central, each row is read against its named source and graded.
- Hit
- The stated outcome occurred by the deadline, per the named source of truth. Gold, earned.
- Miss
- It did not. The row stays on the record in red, forever, next to the confidence we published it with.
- Push
- The question voided — an event canceled, a source silent, a market closed. Pushes are rare and are counted separately, never folded into the hit rate.
The season record — hits, misses, pushes, and each week's board — will live at this address, unedited, from the first live week onward.
What a graded board looks like.
Illustrative rows, shown so you can see the honest part: the miss stays. A forecaster who shows you only gold is showing you a brochure.
-
01
The S&P 500 closes Friday above its Monday open.
11/12Hit -
02
Measurable rain falls at DFW Airport before Friday noon.
12/12Hit -
03
The announced flagship device reaches general availability without a slip.
10/12Miss -
04
The scheduled coastal launch window closes with a successful ascent.
12/12Push
What the board covers
Anything with a verifiable outcome.
Markets and rates. Weather. Elections and polling. Launches and scheduled events. Box office and culture. Court calendars, regulatory decisions, economic prints. The board mixes categories on purpose: an engine that can only call one kind of future is a niche tool, and this one is built to be general.
What the board will not carry: questions that cannot name a source of truth, questions that resolve on somebody's opinion, and questions about private individuals. If it cannot be judged cleanly, it does not publish.
Where this goes
The board is the proof.
The engine is the product.
The public board demonstrates the engine the only way that counts — in the open, against the clock. Behind it, the same convergence verdicts are a feed: delivered by API for desks that want the engine's convictions in their own models and workflows.
And where a verdict maps to a listed contract on a regulated prediction market, putting the engine's own conviction to work — automatically, with real skin in the game — is the roadmap we make no secret of. The board's record is what will make that credible.
The Monday email
The board, in your inbox, the moment it publishes — and the judgment when it lands.
Get the board
One email Monday, one email Friday. That is the entire cadence.